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JICA Experts discuss results of estimated seismic motion with MMDA Assistant General Manager for Planning Corazon Bautista-Cruz (center)

On the fifth floor of the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Headquarters along EDSA in Makati City, Japanese experts, dispatched by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), are bustling to make a database and analyze and evaluate their inputs to map out a possible outline to minimize impact -- and entailing damages -- in the event a major earthquake hits Metro Manila.

The JICA program on the Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, that began in August 2002, is intended to help formulate a master plan for earthquake impact reduction for Metro Manila as well as to help transfer latest related technology to MMDA and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

"This is not a study to predict when and how a major earthquake will hit Metro Manila," says Noboru Ikenishi, JICA Team Leader, "but it is designed to show possible impact areas of a major earthquake and what are the possible ways to minimize the damage."

Metro Manila and Potential for Danger

Metro Manila today comprises 13 cities and four municipalities with a total population going up by 2.5 times in the last 30 years to the present 10 million. It is estimated that by 2015, about 25 million people will be living in this National Capital Region, including rapidly urbanized areas of Laguna, Cavite and Rizal Provinces.

As a result of rapid urbanization, reducing vulnerability to potential natural disaster, through raising awareness of people and organizations, developing a comprehensive disaster management plan and strengthening networks of national and local governments as well as communities, is crucial to safeguarding safety of those who live and operate in Metro Manila.

In and around Metro Manila, numerous earthquake sources exist, such as Valley Fault System (VFS), Philippine Faults, Lubang Faults, Manila Trench and Casiguran Faults. Among these, VFS, which transects the JICA Study area, is considered to cause the largest impact to Metro Manila area if it will become active. Recent studies show that VFS has ruptured twice to four times in the last 1400 years with a return period being approximately less than 500 years. And since no event of a major earthquake has been known along West Valley Fault since the 16th Century, active phases of the Valley Faults may be approaching. Results of many researches indicate that an estimated magnitude will be around 7 or higher.

Various Conditions Incorporated In The Study

Ikenishi says various conditions are incorporated in the on-going researches and investigation, namely natural condition, social condition, public facilities and infrastructure. Natural condition is about geology and topographic characteristics. Social condition involves barangay-to-barangay population density, locations and population of subdivisions as well as those of informal settlers, existing land use and open (vacant) land space. Public facilities, which can be counted on in rescue operations, include school buildings, hospitals, police stations and fire stations. Infrastructure, also a critical factor in the event of a major natural disaster, includes roads, bridges, flyovers, railroads, gasoline stations, electric power facilities, water and sewerage facilities and telecommunication utility.

After these investigations, Ikenishi says, the Japanese experts will analyze seismic impact of scenario earthquakes, such as (1) scale and locations of damage and destruction of houses and buildings and possible human casualty, (2) estimated capacity of local governments to cope with the disaster, including their capability on emergency management and (3) degree of seriousness of the aftermath. In the end, the study is expected to help enhance institutional capacity of local governments in terms of community awareness and preparedness as well as their budget appropriations, for which the national government plays a central role.

When the JICA team organized a workshop on 15 November 2002, 150 officials in charge of disaster management and rescue plans in Metro Manila's related national agencies, local governments and local communities attended. "90% of them stayed from the start through the end," says Yutaka Koike, Deputy Leader of JICA Team, emphasizing keen concerns of these attendants who are responsible for disaster management in this area.