April 7, 2016
Honorable Energy Advisor to Prime Minister, Dr. Towfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury,
Honorable State Minister of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, Mr. Nasrul Hamid,
Respected Secretary of Power Division, Mr. Monowar Islam,
Respected Secretary of Energy and Mineral Resources Division, Mr. Nazimuddin Chowdhury,
Ladies and Gentlemen
Assalam alaikum and good morning
It is indeed a great pleasure for me to attend this discussion session for Power Sector Master Plan, or PSMP, 2015.
As we all know, the primary energy for Bangladesh is now at a turning point. We have to diversify the energy while meeting the surging demand of energy and power. Hence now is the time for Bangladesh to update the Power System Master Plan by examining the structural shift the sector is undergoing. The fundamental questions are: How do we forecast the future? How do we realize optimal energy mix in the long run? And, how do we supply additional 45,000MW in twenty-five years?
Today, we are here to develop the answers to these questions to be incorporated into the PSMP2015 which is now at the final stage of drafting. A master plan should be duly ambitious and practically executable as well. In order to make it realistic and achievable, political, economic, and technical inputs from all the guests are indispensable.
Let me introduce the main feature of today's session which will include an integrated discussion on Energy, Power and the Macro Economy.
First of all, we will start with an in-depth and elaborate analysis of future economic development, referring to the experiences of other Asian countries, bearing in mind the Vision 2041 where Bangladesh aspires to become a developed country by the year 2041. As you will see, the JICA survey team has developed projection models reflecting upcoming structural changes of GDP, population, industrial production and so on. It is quite a rigorous approach which was not applied in the last PSMP2010.
Secondly, based on the macroeconomic analysis, the prospect of demand for primary energy and its supply scenario will be projected for each energy resource for the power sector as well as for other sectors, such as industry and transportation. This long-term demand and supply analysis of the energy sector is based on quantitative evaluations of 3E, namely Economy, Environment and Energy Security to derive a robust power development plan. The power development plan, in turn, will cover, among others, realistic feed-in schedule of import-coal and import-LNG based power generations, prospects of halted domestic coal exploration and potentials of intra-regional energy cooperation.
Last but not least, all the discussion will be casted back to the macro economy through discussions of energy and power tariffs. By this method, we can see the inter-link between development policy for the energy and power sector and fiscal management of the government. We can even call this master plan as a communication tool between policy planners and project executives.
In conclusion, I would like to stress that this discussion session will give the opportunity to the JICA survey team to present its output till today in order to get feedback and thoughtful guidance from all levels of stakeholders so that the team can cater to the real need of Bangladesh on which the Master Plan should be firmly framed. I would, therefore, like to ask all the honorable guests here today to actively participate in the discussion.
Shobaike Onek Donnobad. Thank you very much.