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Ex-post Evaluation

Asia

1. Outline of the Project

  • Country: China
  • Project title: Improving the Flood Control Command System of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of China
  • Issues/Sector: Weather/Earthquakes
  • Cooperation scheme: A Technical Cooperation Project
  • Division in charge: Social Development Cooperation Dept. First Technical Cooperation Division
  • Total cost: 1,159 Million Yen
  • Period of Cooperation: (R/D): June 1993 – May 1998 (F/U): June 1998 – May 2000
  • Partner Country's Implementing Organization: Ministry of Water Resources
  • Supporting Organization in Japan: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
  • Related cooperation:

1. Background of the Project

China has been hit by big floods every year and suffered from extensive human and economic damage caused by them. However, the Flood Control Command System of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of China (FCDRHs) lagged relatively behind. In order to establish an effective automatic flood control command system and implement human resources development of flood forecasting, the Chinese government requested a technical cooperation project from the Japanese government.

Upon the request, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted the five-year technical cooperation project from June 1993 in three different fields--Flood Forecasting, Telecommunication and Information Processing. Implementing authorities of China were Water Resources Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) in Beijing and ZhangWeiNan Canal Management Bureau (ZCMB).

After reviewing the terminal evaluation of the Project conducted in December 1997, necessity of further cooperation was confirmed, and the two-year follow-up project was carried out from May 1998 until the completion in May 2000 in accordance with the re-evaluation.

2. Project Overview

The project’s objectives are (i) to improve automatic flood control command systems in the FCDRHs and selected study area (ZCMB), (ii) to train technical personnel, (iii) to prevent flood disasters and mitigate damages, by means of transferring technologies in three fields--Flood Forecasting, Telecommunication and Information Processing.

(1) Overall Goal

To Enhance the ability of flood control management in order to reduce damages.

(2) Project Purpose

To Improve automatic flood control command systems in the FCDRHs and selected study area (ZCMB) by means of transferring technologies in three fields--Flood Forecasting, Telecommunication and Information Processing, and develop technical personnel.

(3) Outputs

1) Flood Forecasting: An online real-time forecasting system in the selected study area (ZCMB), and provide its technology and knowledge is established.

2) Telecommunication: Information gathering systems, telecommunication network, and telemeter monitoring network for flood prevention in the selected study area (ZCMB) are improved.

3) Information Processing: Flood control information processing systems of the FCDRHs and the selected study area (ZCMB) are improved.

(4) Inputs
Japanese side:
Long-term Experts10 Equipment460 Million Yen
Short-term Experts37 Local cost60 Million Yen
Trainees received24  
Chinese side:
Counterparts98 Local Cost25 Million RMB

2. Evaluation team

Members of Evaluation Team
Meng Weiliang (JP Ruihua EnvironTech Co., Ltd)
Period of Evaluation
November 20, 2003 - January 20, 2004
Type of Evaluation:
Ex-Post

3. Results of Evaluation

3-1 Summary of Evaluation Results

Impact

(1) Actual impact of the Project

  1. The ability of flood control management has been improved due to the project:

    a) Facilitated computerized decision-making process:

    In 2003, ZCMB redesigned the existing flood forecasting system and newly developed the Flood Control Command System, which realized a higher standard of information and scientific basis for flood control management.

    Development of the National Hydrological Information and Flood Forecasting System in 2000 and the WEB-GIS based Flood Control Conference System in 2001 contributed to improving precision and accuracy in predicting floods and enabled to provide scientific basis and technical support for decision–making process of flood control management.
    In 2003, the primary development plan of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System was approved. It means that successful results of the automatic Flood Control Command System will be promoted for broad replication. In addition, further progress has been seen in the Central Flood Control System developed in the Project.

    b) Strengthened communication network systems and functions:

    Since 1996, 13 sets of point-to-point link microwave communication systems have been set up, and the ground-based satellite station was also established in Dezhou. These realized an interactive network that connects the systems of MWR, Haihe River Water Resources Commission, Yellow River Water Resources Commission, Henan Province Flood Control Communication network, etc. Within 3 years after the completion of the Project, ZCMB has laid another 11 branch lines of microwave communication systems (180 km in total), which extended the capacity of the main line.

    An advanced network system that combines communication facilities such as fixed-line, high frequency wave, ultra short wave, mobile communications, satellite, etc. was adopted for the flood control communication system in order to obtain more timely and accurate information about floods. In case of critical moments, water level and discharge information are collected from local hydrological stations within 20 minutes, and transmitted to the central office in Beijing within 30 minutes.

    c) Enhanced ability of data collection:

    In 2003, ZCMB upgraded monitoring and measurement systems of 5 remote hydrological stations established in the Project to integrate them into the system of Yuecheng Reservoir for the purpose of enhancing the capacity of data collection and processing. It is also planned to establish another 7 remote hydrological stations in the near future.

    d) Improved efficiency of Flood forecasting:

    In the past, it took 2-3 hours to make a short-term (3-5 days) flood forecast, but now, it can be done within 10 minutes by utilizing the latest forecasting system. A flood warning is released 3 to 5 times in a dry year, and more than 10 times in a wet year. By introducing the computerized system, accuracy and timing of flood forecasting has been significantly improved.

    e) Human resources development for the “Digital Flood Control Project”:

    The National Development and Reform Commission ratified the primary project of National Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System in June 2003. The total amount of investment is 770 million RMB, and duration of the project is 3 years. 10 counterpart experts who were involved in the JICA project will participate this project.

  2. The project has contributed to reduce flood damages:

    Due to the Project, the Central Flood Control Information System could issue accurate flood information and forecasts in the main flood season from June to September in 1998, which resulted in reducing 80 Billion RMB of flood disaster loss according to the authority estimate. After the completion of the Project, operations related to the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System have been implemented across the country, which resulted in reducing disaster losses successfully.

    In the beginning of July 2001, Nanning experienced the worst flood since 1937. In the flood control operation, Nanning sub-center released flood forecasts and warnings 13 times based on 18,600 collected hydrological data, which led to avoiding extensive social and economic damages. 161,600 residents were evacuated and over 2.21 million tons of goods were transferred to safer places.

    In 2002 and 2003, the biggest-ever floods hit the Fu River, but due to the accurate information and online flood forecasting system, the disaster loss was reduced by approximately 500 million RMB and 130,000 residents were evacuated safely.

    In 2003, the second biggest-ever flood since 1954 hit the Huai River. Due to the appropriate and scientific management during the flood season, economic loss on 18 reservoirs along the river was reduced by 10.4 billion RMB.

    In June and July of 2003, heavy rains and floods hit the Zhumadian hydrological sub-center in Henan Province. Due to the accurate hydrological information and forecast, the flood damage was mitigated, which worth 180 million RMB.

    As described above, the Project contributed significantly to reducing flood disaster damages in China.

  3. Orientation of flood control management in China has been changed:

    As China is in the transition period from engineering management to risk management, the scheme of flood control management was made based on the experience of Japan.

(2) Unanticipated direct and indirect impact

Enhanced the ability of project management and operation

Through the JICA project, counterparts in China could learn how to operate and manage a project. 10 counterpart experts involved in the Project participate in the primary project of National Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System.

Sustainability

(1) Organizational Aspects:

The positioning and roles of Water Resources Information Center of MWR and ZCMB have remained unchanged for the last three years after the completion of the Project, which bears out the sustainability of the Project from the organizational aspect.

(2) Financial Aspects:

Both MWR Water Resource Information Center and ZCMB get necessary funds from MWR. The Chinese government retain high priority on the flood control management, and there is no doubt about the importance of these authorities’ roles in the future. Therefore, a steady fund provision is assured.

(3) Technical Aspects:

All the systems developed during the Project have been used and maintained properly. They have also been redesigned and updated at counterparts discretion. The technical staffs fully understand the technology, and their skill and knowledge are used to the advantage of daily operations. There is sustainability from the technical aspect.

(4) Effectiveness:

  1. The information processing system of ZCMB’s communication network was overhauled from the bottom up in order to enhance information gathering and transmitting capacity, as well as management and communication ability of flood control operations.

    After the completion of the Project, ZCMB developed a flood control command system based on the forecasting system made in the Project in accordance with the operational requirement, which has been already used in actual operations.

    The microwave communication system was upgraded, and its functions have been exerted.

    The hydrological remote measurement system was upgraded to suit operational needs. It is planned to increase the number of monitoring stations in the future.

    As a result of these efforts, ZCMB’s communication network and information processing system have been sophisticated, and the information processing capacity and the flood control management ability have been enhanced.

    Therefore, there is relatively high sustainability from the effectiveness aspect.

  2. The Central Flood Control Information system was upgraded, which enabled to automate in a large scale the information processing procedure--collection, storage, processing, searching, providing, etc.

    After the completion of the Project, MWR developed a new system.

    As a part of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Command System Project, the Central Flood Control Information system was upgraded, which enabled to automate in a large scale the information processing procedure--collection, storage, processing, searching, providing, etc..

    The project effectiveness has relatively high sustainability.

  3. Counterpart acquired the basic knowledge about telecommunication and information processing technologies.

    As described above, the counterpart acquired sufficient technological knowledge provided in the Project, and it has been used in daily operations flexibly.

    Therefore, the project effectiveness has high sustainability.

3-2. Factors that Promoted Realization of Effects
Factors Concerning the Planning

(1) The Chinese government emphasized the specific policy in respect of flood control management, and provided financial support:

In the 10th National Five Year Plan (2000-2005), the Chinese government emphasized the need for scientific water management, especially intensifying flood control management and overall development of major rivers and lakes across the country.

In December 2000, the FCDRHs accomplished the reorganization for “the National Flood Control and Disaster Reductions Project (the Tenth Five-year Plan) and Project [2010]”. For the Tenth Five-year Plan, a couple of billion RMB will be invested in order to computerize hydrological information of all over the country.

These political supports contributed to raising project effectiveness.

(2) High priority for the establishment of Flood Control and Damage Reduction Forecasting System

The project’s objectives remain appropriate today. Flood control and damage reduction is vital importance to China in its social and economic development process. It is the top priority to strengthen flood control management other than construction matters--automation of information processing process, forecasting, policy-making support, etc.

3-3. Factors Concerning the Implementation Process

MWR Water Resource Information Center and ZCMB have great responsibility in the flood control management in China, and sufficient personnel and budget have been provided.

3-4. Factors that Impeded Realization of Effects

(1) Factors concerning the Planning

N/A

(2) Factors concerning the Implementation Process

N/A

3-5. Conclusion

As MWR Water Resource Information Center and ZCMB have sufficient personnel and budget base, further progress of flood control operations is ensured from the aspect of organization.

In addition, the development of technology and upgraded systems after the completion of the Project proved their high standard ability of flood control management.

Counterpart experts of the Project are taking leadership due to their management and technical capability and playing important roles to keep sustainability of the project’s effectiveness in the management bureaus.

From the findings of the evaluation, it became clear that the Project has relatively higher sustainability from the aspects of organization, personnel and technology. The Project contributed greatly to evolving the development of the automatic flood control command system and played great roles to reduce flood disasters.

3-6. Recommendations

  1. Recommendations to Ministry of Water Resources

    (1) On the basis of past achievements, its skill and knowledge should be applied to other areas.

  2. Recommendations to JICA

    (1) There was a small problem that the system developed in the Project was not fully compatible. The counterpart solved the problem after the completion of the Project by updating the system.

    In the future, source code of the system should be disclosed as much as possible on condition that the intellectual property right is protected, so that the counterpart is able to modify and improve the system efficiently.

    (2) To assure sustainability of a project, equipment provision policy should be more flexible, and supplies of some necessary equipments have to be guaranteed. For a certain period after completion of a project, technical follow-up is critical depending on the situation and the requirement of China.

3-7. Lessons Learned

To obtain full support from the Chinese government, a project has to be designed to meet their long-term objectives. This project played significant roles and was worthwhile in terms of improving the ability of flood control management in China.

3-8. Follow-up Status

N/A

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