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Ex-post Evaluation

Asia

1. Outline of the Project

Country:

Mongolia

Project title:

Project for Upgrading of Meteorological Observation and Forecasting System in Mongolia

Issue/Sector:

Weather/Earthquakes

Cooperation Scheme:

Grant Aid

Division in Charge:

Grant Aid Management Department

Total Cost:

1,069 million yen

Period of Cooperation

FY 1997-1999

Partner Country’s Implementing Organization:

National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Monitoring of Mongolia

Supporting Organization in Japan:

Related Cooperation:

1-1 Background of the Project

The climate is continental and dry in Mongolia, as the country is surrounded by several mountain ranges. The climatic damage has various causes, such as heavy snow and dust storms in the winter and sandstorms and thundershowers in the summer. The natural disasters caused by such severe weather conditions carry the highest potential for loss of life and property every year.

The National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Monitoring (NAMHEM) is responsible mainly for providing meteorological forecasting services in Mongolia. However, the accuracy of its services is generally low, especially of its forecast of small- and middle-scale meteorological phenomenon in the summer. Hence, flash floods caused by heavy rain sometimes result in casualties and loss of livestock and properties, especially in the hillside area of the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, which contains about 25% of the Mongolian population. Such small- and middle-scale climates often go through extreme changes and lead to irredeemable accidents when aircraft are hit by them. The existing radar system, which was made in the former Soviet Union, was introduced in 1978. As it has become very old, it was difficult to procure spare parts. For such reasons, renewal was urgently needed. Therefore, the government of Mongolia requested Grant Aid from the Japanese government.

1-2 Project Overview

The Japanese government provided Grant Aid for the upgrading of the meteorological observation and forecasting system in Mongolia. Among other things, support was given in constructing a radar tower building at Morin-Uul radar site, and in providing equipment necessary for meteorological observation.

(1) Overall Goal
1) To prevent and reduce natural disasters in Mongolia.
2) To ensure the safety of civil aviation operations.

(2) Project Purpose
To continuously provide more accurate weather forecast and warnings.

(3) Outputs
1) Meteorological surveillance is provided more accurately.
2) Meteorological surveillance is provided more continuously.
3) Meteorological information is provided more promptly.
4) Meteorological information is provided to a more widespread area.
5) Quick responses to disasters, such as sudden freshet or flooding from heavy rain, etc., are developed.
6) Meteorologists are trained.

(4) Inputs

Japanese Side:

1,069 million yen (1997: 25 million yen, 1998: 299 million yen, 1999: 745million yen)

Mongolian Side:

Land and Facilities

2. Evaluation Team

Members of Evaluation Team

Baatar Tumenbayar, BEMM Co. LTD

Period of Evaluation

December 5, 2002 – January 16, 2003

Ex-Post Evaluation by Overseas Office

3. Results of Evaluation

3-1 Summary of Evaluation Results

(1) Impact
The accuracy of forecasting sudden meteorological changes in Ulaanbaatar has greatly improved. The accuracy rate of the weather forecasts provided six-hours in advance for Ulaanbaatar city has improved from about 97.5% before 1997 to over 98.5% after project completion.

Daily weather forecasts on TV are now more understandable, using illustrations and images, and the forecast is provided more often. Weather forecasters can see the condition of thunder, rain, clouds, snow, storms, etc. directly, as radar information on the color display screen. Aviation authorities can also observe weather phenomena, due to the development of communication system. They can now respond quickly to sudden meteorological changes. This improvement that has resulted from the project plays a very important role in providing greater flight safety.

(2) Sustainability
Morin-Uul radar station was originally staffed by 12 persons (8 engineers) until 2000 and is now staffed by 8 persons (4 engineers), due to the automation of the system after the completion of the radar station.

Previously, during the winter season in particular, Molin-Uul radar station was not monitored by engineers 24 hours a day. After having serious accident such as breakdowns due to electrical phase changes, the station is now permanently monitored even in the winter to protect against troubles since June 2001. Only one of the three engineers trained in equipment maintenance when the equipment was installed is still working at the Morin-Uul station. This engineer and his assistant have resolved all equipment troubles that occurred until now, and the equipment is in normal working condition. Since 2001, one person is trained a year for equipment maintenance in order to compensate for the shortage of technical staff in the station. All the trainees can now work independently. With such good maintenance of equipment, meteorological observation has been operated sufficiently.

The main budget of NAMHEM relies on allocations from the Mongolian government and the aviation center, which pays for routine expenses of staff in Molin-Uul radar station such as the salary, electricity, and phone fee. The total budget for NAMHEM has been on the increase. The government spent 5.6 million tug (around US$5000) on additional equipment in 2002. NAMHEM authorities think the necessary amount of money for equipment should be reflected in the state budget.

3-2 Factors that Promoted the Realization of Effects

(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
Because the project was designed not only to install a radar, but also to establish an information-sharing system among the Morin-Uul radar station, national airport and TV stations, it has led to the enhancement in the effective utilization of the weather forecast.

(2) Factors Concerning the Implementation Process
N/A

3-3 Factors that Impeded the Realization of Effects

(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
N/A

(2) Factors Concerning the Implementation Process
1) Ulaanbaatar city’s blackouts, voltage and phase changes have been the main obstacles in properly operating the project equipment.
2) It is difficult to keep highly qualified workers at project sites.
3) Spare parts are scarce due to their high cost.

3-4 Conclusion

The equipment installed at the Morin-Uul radar station is functioning satisfactorily, and Mongolian engineers are able to solve problems when necessary. The government and the aviation center assure the budget for its operation. Training for maintenance staff is being implemented. The quality and quantity of meteorological information provided on TV for citizens have greatly improved. Therefore, the donated equipment in the project is expected to help to protect Ulaanbaatar and the surrounding areas from hazardous meteorological phenomenon in the future.

3-5 Recommendations

(1) For the continued reliable operation of the Morin-Uul radar station, it is advisable to invite a specialist from the manufacturers of the equipment to provide maintenance demonstrations, workshops and training. Personnel should be trained further to ensure techniques for maintenance, especially for electronics. If necessary, they should be dispatched to Japan for training. Also budget for maintenance should be ensured sufficiently, which is necessary for fostering human resource and procuring spare parts.

(2) As for the cost necessary for repair of electrical problems, an agreement should be made between the Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Infrastructure, to have the electricity supplier bear the cost in order to foster a sense of responsibility in the supplier side.

3-6 Lessons Learned

It is desirable that the technical cooperation project for fostering personnel who is responsible for maintenance of equipment be continued for a period of 3-5 years. In such case, it would be most effective to choose radar stations which are equipped in a similar manner as a training site, when training is provided in Japan.

3-7 Follow-up Situation

N/A

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