Ex-post Evaluation

I. Outline of the Project

• Country : Kingdom of Thailand
• Project title : The Study on Pasture Seed Production Development Project in Northeast Thailand
• Issue/Sector : Agriculture
• Cooperation scheme : Technical Cooperation
• Division in Charge : Livestock and Horticulture Division, Agricultural Development Cooperation Department
• Total Cost : 397,334 thousand JP yen
• Period of Cooperation :
  (R/D): 14th August, 1999 – 13th August, 2004
• Partner Country's Implementing Organization: Department of Livestock Development (DLD), Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC)
• Supporting Organizations in Japan : Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

1-1 Background of the Project

In the 9th National Socio-economic Development Plan (2002-2006), the Thai government set up the Livestock Promotion Plan, in order to promote the livestock products to meet the domestic and international demand for agricultural products.

In the livestock Promotion Plan, the Thai government identified the importance of increasing high quality forage production in order to respond to the cattle population increase as well as to reduce production costs of livestock products.

The Thai government built a basic system for the purpose of supporting forage seed production for developing livestock industry. This system allocated a quota to seed production farmers for purchasing seeds and provision of seeds at free of charge to dairy farmers who newly started cattle rearing and cooperate with the government’s project. Especially in Khon Kaen area of Northeast Thailand, the seed production farmers produced the 97 % of the total forage seed production in Thailand, supported by the government. The seed production farmers were eager to produce forage seeds because of its high profitability compared with rice production.

However, there were several problems faced in forage seeds production: 1) appropriate seed varieties are not developed in Thailand; 2) cultivation management, 3) inspection and the system for maintaining the quality of seed technique were not well developed; and seeds market in limited.

In order to resolve such problems, the Thai government requested the Japanese government for a technical cooperation to promote the livestock development through improvement of the forage production and utilization techniques.

1-2 Cooperation Overview

(1) Overall Goal

Appropriate forage is secured for the development of cattle rising in Thailand.

(2) Project Purpose

The techniques on production, processing, and utilization of pasture seed and appropriate forage are developed for small-scale livestock and pasture seed farmers in Northeast Thailand.

(3) Project Outputs

• Techniques on evaluation and selection of appropriate varieties of pasture are developed.
• Techniques on pasture seed production and post-harvest processing for registered and commercial seeds are developed.
• Techniques on pasture seed inspection and quality control are developed.
• Techniques on production, processing and utilization of appropriate forage are developed.

(4) Project Inputs

Japanese side:

• Long Term Expert
• 7 persons

• Short term expert
• 16 persons

• No. of trainees
• 13 persons

• Equipment supply
• 8,407 thousand JP yen

• Local cost
• 3,435 thousand JP yen

• Other
• 1,300 thousand JPyen

• Received in Japan

Thai side:

• Counterparts
• 20 persons

• Local cost
• 14,950 thousand baht

• Other
• 3,150 thousand baht

II. Evaluation Team and Period

Members:

• Evaluation/ Analysis
• Minoru Fujii
  RECS International Inc.

• Assistant Researcher
• Thanyatorn Singrueng
  Kokusai Kogyo (Thailand) Co., Ltd.

• Technical Support
• Sucheewan Yoyrurob
  Kokusai Kogyo (Thailand) Co., Ltd

Period of Evaluation:

1st/October/2006~30th/January/2007

Type of Evaluation:

Ex-post Evaluation

III. Results of Evaluation

3-1 Summary of Evaluation Results

(1) Impact

(a) Achievement of the Project overall goal

Because new pasture seed varieties takes at least three years to be evaluated, the Study could not confirm their results. It is essentially desirable to evaluate these varieties from the viewpoints of local adaptability and specific characters, after three years from their breeding development.

However, The pasture seeds newly introduced by the Project took a firm hold on the local situation in Thailand from 2004 to 2007. Besides, according to a statistical data from 2004 to 2006, the crop of animal food production as Thailand’s supply sufficiently exceeded expectations of Thailand’s demand planned by the AND program. Therefore, the achievement of the overall goal has continuously been realized since the Project termination because the supply obviously fulfilled the demand in Thailand, based on the comparison between the production plan and actual crop.

From this analysis, the achievement of overall goal since the Project termination has continuously been realized.

Cultivated Area of New Varieties 2004-2007

Species	Cultivated Acreage (Rai)
	2004	2005	2006	2007(forecast)
Panicum maximum	1,719	3,008	5,826	12,164
Brachiaria ruziziensis	1,353	4,804	6,941	7,614
Stylosanthes guianensis	447	122	57	200
Stylosanthes hamata : cv. Verano	507	366	589	942
Centrosema pascuorum: cavalcade	249	170	341	367
Total	4,275	8,470	13,754	21,287

*1 Rai = 0.16 ha Planed and Actual Crop of Pasture Seeds

Item	Planned Production (t)			Actual Production (t)
	2004	2005	2006	2004	2005	2006
Hay	5,300	4,475	4,750	5,387	5,022	5,879
Silage	550	885	697	1,204	1,053	1,275
Forage	3,090	3,090	3,003	4,855	4,995	5,563
Total	8,940	8,450	8,450	11,446	11,070	12,717

(b) Technical Impact

The techniques and knowledge of the Project are widely utilized by C/P personnel and their organizations. In addition, technical manuals produced by the Project have been widely spread through their use by persons who did not join the Project. From this point of view, the technical impact realized in the Project period is kept alive and influences the achievement of the Project overall goal.

A notable Project impact not anticipated at the time of the Project termination is the Paddy pasture project (Paddy project) being implemented under the AND initiative. For the Paddy project, most of the AND personnel who joined the Project have been working for the Paddy project. As a result, techniques/knowledge and manuals/guidelines transferred from the Project have been utilized by the AND personnel for the Paddy project. Moreover, resulting from the fact that the manuals/guidelines were produced not only in English but also in Thai, they have widely been utilized not only by AND personnel with a command of English but also by other AND personnel and seed production farmers.

Moreover, much of the equipment supplied by the Project has been used for the Paddy project as well. These events have also contributed the expansion of the Project impact.

(c) Institutional Impact

There has been no particular change in institutional improvement and efforts to ensure an increase in forage production since the Project termination. It, however, should be remarked that the expansion of the number of members of the Seed Production Farmers’ Club (Seed Club), which was operationally supported by the Project during its implementation period, could influence its relative position among the pasture seed production organization. This is because the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) and Animal Nutrition Department (AND) have been able to reflect seed farmers’ opinions and the existing conditions of seed production activities in the field effectively through the Seed Club. As a result, the improvement of the seed quality has effectively been enhanced in Thailand.

*The Seed Club was established in 2003 mainly by seed farmers in the Northeast, the Thai major seed production area. Since its establishment, the seed production crops and prices have got to be determined through the club’s meetings according to the market situation. Then, it has contributed to the independence and sustainability of the farmers. Besides, the Seed Club has promoted pasture seed production and development activities to the farmers, while cooperating with AND.

(d) Economic and Financial Impact

As a whole, the supply of AND's crop product exceeds demand. Under this circumstance, AND regulated the crop production through the Seed Club, which reserved pasture seed as stock, and eventually sold these reserves to other countries.

(e) Environmental and Social Impact:

As for the terminal evaluation on the Project, the terminal study concluded the positive impact on the local environment such as the reduction of hard labor required for traditional methods and the reduction of dust pollution associated with operation of old-model machines. The Study could also confirm these impacts were still kept alive in the practical fields of pasture seed and forage production.

(2) Sustainability

(a) Organizational Aspects

In terms of the organization, the present sustainability can be secured thanks to the lack of outflows, such as personnel changes and job separations of the Project trained C/P, since the Project termination.

(b) Political Aspects

In Thailand, the agricultural industry occupies 54% of the overall industrial population, and so the 10th National Economic and Social Development, ranked as the highest national policy in Thailand, puts a special emphasis on the agricultural industry. This plan put a special emphasis on "economic restructuring for balanced and sustainable development". To deal with the reconstruction, the relative position of pasture seed production has recently risen from the viewpoint of securing the quality and quantity of agricultural products.

Besides, since the international standard of OECD Seed Scheme required of Thailand as an agricultural exporting country, greater importance and effectiveness of the Project output "Techniques on pasture seed inspection and quality control are developed" is anticipated. Under this circumstance, AND’s functions have relatively risen, and there are no factors inhibiting AND's activities in terms of political aspects.

(c) Technical Aspects

The availability of the equipment can be sustained by the control and maintenance of AND in good condition. Besides, various technical materials including equipment operational manuals were produced not only in English but also in Thai by the Project. As a result, the materials, such as seed inspection guidelines and seed inspection sheets, have been understood and widely used by local farmers. This point has also been an important factor for the expansion of the Project sustainability.

The technical knowledge and skills have also been applied sufficiently for the AND-led Paddy project. As a result, further maintenance of the technical sustainability has been possible through the Paddy project.

(d) Financial Aspects

Although the budget rate for the forage breeding development is still less than 0.4% of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC) total budget, the recent AND budget has steadily increased depending on its upper level budgets. Moreover, AND has received certain budgets over the expenditures of the previous years for its forage breeding development activities. Moreover, the budgets have been distributed every year, and they have been expended within limits according to their plans. These facts can also be evaluated well from the viewpoint of sustainability.

However, a future plan to increase the budget trend is still unannounced for the development and so it is unclear. This is a point of concern.

3-2 Factors that have promoted the Project

(1) Impact

(a) Seed Club

Since the technical transfer by participating AND personnel took place, the impact of the Project has spilled over to seed farmers via the Seed Club beyond expectations of the organizers. Besides, the establishment of the Seed Club has acted as a community body for the farmers in technical terms and, as a result, the existence of the Seed Club can be defined as one of the significant factors in the expansion of the Project impact.

(b) Increase in the number of livestock cattle

A return of the mad cow disease in 2003 dealt a serious blow to the beef industry. As a result, a decrease in Thailand’s domestic production of beef of approximately 40% was seen from 2003 to 2004. On the other hand, the number of livestock cows has annually risen. This is because the number of youths enjoying dairy products has dramatically increased recently through a milk supply program to pupils at primary schools, and the recent popularization of western-style dietary life and culture among young people. This increase in livestock cattle has contributed to an objective verifiable indicator of the achievement of the Project overall goal.

(2) Sustainability

(a) Thai made products exporting to the world

Although indirect in nature, "Kitchen of the World" promoted by the Thai government is also a notable factor. This is a national project which aims at promoting the export of safety-guaranteed Thai food products, together with the development of overseas Thai restaurants. So, this project has also been a promotional force in the expansion of exporting Thai livestock products. For the progression of the project, AND has recently been required to secure pasture seeds at an international quality level and to control the quality standard for export livestock products. As a result, the technical capacity of seed inspection and quality control transferred from the Project has been more fully utilized.

(b) Material production in the local language

For the effective implementation of pasture seed production activities, technical manuals and guidelines were produced not only in English but also in Thai by the Project. As a result, these materials have been widely accepted not only by those with a command of English but also others, including farmers at the field level. This is also a factor of the Project sustainability in addition to the technical impact.

3-3 Factors that have inhibited the Project

(1) Impact

Nothing in particular.

(2) Sustainability

Nothing in particular.

3-4 Conclusion

The technical skills and knowledge transferred from the Project have widely been used not only by the Project C/P but also by persons who did not join the Project. Furthermore, technical training with various manuals and guidelines arranged by the Project have been increased in comparison with the time of the Project termination, and so, the Project impact has been further expanded. In the Project, a recording system was introduced for objective and systematic seed quality testing and controlling. Today, most of the Project C/Ps participate in the AND-led Paddy project, and this system is fully applied for the production of good quality seeds. Moreover, the existence of the Seed Club has contributed to the expansion of the Project impact. As a result, the efficient and effective production of good quality seeds has been possible, and it has strengthened the realization of the Project overall achievement.

As for the Project sustainability, technical and organizational aspects were highly evaluated. In terms of the technical aspects, technical references and materials were arranged not only in English but also in Thai by the Project. So, they have widely penetrated grass-roots farmer levels, and it has efficiently and effectively been possible for the framers to understand seed quality control techniques and their importance. This event has been a factor to further accelerate the Project sustainability.

As for organizational aspects, there have been no personnel outflows from the C/P side since the Project termination. So AND still maintains seed production activities using techniques and knowledge transferred from the Project. As a result, these techniques and importance have continuously been transferred from the C/P to farmers, and this has highly contributed to maintain the Project sustainability.

This Study could not confirm the output of news seed breeding varieties defined as one of the indicators to achieve the overall goal, but it could confirm the expansion of cultivated acreage and the growth of seed production crop. So, the Study concluded with high evaluation results of the Project as a whole. To sustain these high results, it is required to continue the technical transfer to persons concerned with the activities of pasture seed production and development. For that, strengthened future cooperation between AND and the Seed Club is essential. On the other hand, there is no detailed future plan dealing with an effective pasture seed development. Therefore, AND needs to produce its detailed future strategy under its role as a practical implementing organization with the political assistance of DLD as AND’s supervising organization.

3-5 Recommendation

• Technical manuals and guidelines produced by the Project and technical training workshops jointly held by AND and the Seed Club have taken an important role to secure the Project sustainability. In order to maintain this sustainability in the future, it is desirable that these contents and programs are revised according to the needs of seed farmers and the seed market whenever necessary.
• The planning of mid and long term strategies for pasture seed supply are necessary, while considering variable consumptive demand for livestock products from the viewpoint of sustainable pasture seed production and development activities. As a result, it will be possible to secure budgets essential for effective seed production and development activities in the future.
• For the enhancement of pasture seed quality and productivity, AND needs to sustain a strong partnership with the Seed Club. As a result, the sufficient supply of good quality forage necessary for the Thai livestock promotion can stably be continued.

3-6 Lesson Learned

• In terms of flora and fauna development projects including the agricultural field, the exact evaluation of their technical outputs can take several years. Therefore, it is desirable to carry out ex-post evaluation studies for such as development project after a certain period from their project terminations.
• At present, the dispatch term of JICA experts is generally two years at most, so they often cannot consistently confirm the outputs themselves. Therefore, a plan in which the experts can confirm needs to be considered in advance, or more attention paid to follow-up schedules carried out by their successors.
• Technical manuals and guidelines can eventually be utilized at the field level by producing them in the local language. Therefore, such as material production in the local language is very useful for technical cooperation projects with the activities of technical transfer and promotion to farmers in the field.

3-7 Follow-up Situation

No follow-up programs have yet been carried out by the Japanese side since the Project termination in 2004.