Ex-post Evaluation

1.1 Background of the Project

Agriculture is an important economic sector and providing largest employment in Indonesia. Greater rice import in the last 4 years (more than 4 million ton/year) make this sector needs more accurate data to estimate the need of demand rice annually. The project attempt to help CAD to be able providing accurate, reliable and timely correct data and information through the statistical technology improvement and training.

1.2 Project Overview

This technical cooperation project was implemented from 1994- 2001; CAD was the implementing agency in co-operation with Central Agency of Statistic (it was formerly Center Bureau of Statistic), Provincial, District and Sub-District Agricultural Extension Service.

(1) Overall Goal

Introducing new statistical methodology that is more effective and efficient in food crops and fisheries in the Ministry of Agriculture.

(2) Project Purpose

To improve the agricultural statistics activities in CAD (it is now become CADIN, Center of Data and Information)

(3) Outputs

1) Capability of statistics and Computer staffs are improved
2) Methodology of data collection of agricultural statistics is improved
3) Data processing methodology for statistics is improved
4) Computers are well utilized

(5) Inputs

Japanese side:

Indonesia side:

3.1 Summary of Evaluation Result

(1) Impact

The overall goal of the project to introduce new statistical methodology that is more effective and efficient in food crops and fisheries in the Ministry of Agriculture is highly achieved. This can be seen from the improvement of statistics and computer staffs capability and methodology of data collection and processing of agricultural statistics.

The new method of yield estimate by "RC" or Rumpun/Hills Counting introduced by the Project had been accepted by most of project beneficiaries at central to sub-district level. The statistical processing models had been improved and resulted more speedy, accurate and reliable. The ex-trainees working conduct and perception including staffs at regional government had been changed after the project to more devotion to statistical mission compared to the previous monotonous working behavior.

The un-expected or negative impact is found out to be weak or can be neglected.

(2) Sustainability

The CAD (Center of Agricultural Data Information) Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for handling and developing the outcomes of the project. CAD is already developing new software by their own professional staff, such as WEB PUSDATIN, e-Learning program and MCBT (Multimedia Computer Based Training). More hardware's support for CAD activities are extended after the project. In view of institutional and outcomes, the sustainability of project is moderately high.

Trends of Human resource development and budget support are steadily increasing, also other institution request for training of new method (including for horticulture) are likely continuing to increase steadily.

3-2 Factors that have promoted project in the aspect of:

(1) Impact

The institutional capability and supporting management in view of human resource and infrastructure at the CAD are the main factors that have promoted the impacts of the project. Change of working culture of statistical staffs to be Responsibility, Timely Correct and Precision, and financial support from the central and regional government are also encourage the project impacts.

(2) Sustainability

Policy encouragement from Ministry of Agriculture had been significantly obtained, also with the increase of funding support. Appreciations of new yield estimate method and data processing system had been strongly indicated by almost all sub-sectors in the Ministry of Agriculture, Provincial and District Agricultural services. These two facts have promoted the sustainability of the project.

3-3 Factors that have inhibited project in the aspect of:

(1) Impact

As the socialization of the improved statistical method has not been intensively conducted in national wide, this inhibited the project impacts.

(2) Sustainability

Duty moving and retirement of capable human resources of statistical staffs, not matching of area survey frequency with regular decision maker monthly meeting are factors which has inhibited sustainability.

3-4. Conclusion

The project impact and sustainability are, in fact, at level of high and moderately high, those are for improvement of statistics and computer staffs capability and methodology of data collection and processing of agricultural statistics. The most significant impact is that agricultural statistician had culturally been changed to devotion under "3T" motto and it is believed to be sustained. Further works are still required to get national consensus.

3-5. Recommendations

Based on the Evaluation Study, the following recommendations are suggested to the CAD to further improve the agricultural statistics technology:

a) Development of new area survey technique is needed to complement and verify the "eye estimate" quarterly in each year

b) Strengthening data processing and transfer electronically in the statistical system should be prioritized, where in fact CAD has modernized this activity triggered by the project.

c) CAD is confidence and trusted already by sub-sectors in MOA, more competent TOT and e-learning as the follow up of the project are recommended to be intensified.

3-6. Lessons Learned

The most important for the success of the project is to disseminate the project outcomes in national wide. More works toward establishment of national new consensus is needed, therefore more frequent forum, meeting, training, supervising are important media to socialize the good result of the project.

3-7. Follow-up Situation

The current CAD activity being done covers the continuation of routine and development programs and in addition:

a) CAD is in charge to facilitate the establishment of technology being used in Land Use Development Management Project (LUDM) of the Directorate General of Food Crops and to train agricultural statistician in 78 Districts (Kabupaten) in Java Island.

b) In cooperation with FAO to develop and strengthen agricultural statistic in two provinces, namely Banten and NTB (Nusa Tenggara Barat or Western of Southeast Island).