JICA Ogata Research Institute

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Projection of the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Welfare of Remittance-Dependent Households in the Philippines

Remittance-dependent countries have borne the fiscal brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined with travel restrictions and lockdowns, economic downturns in destination countries have led to a sharp drop in remittances to developing nations whose citizens depend heavily on funds transferred by migrant family members.

This paper explores the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the welfare of remittance-dependent households in the Philippines, one of the world’s largest source countries for migrants. To this end, it utilizes a dataset collected in the Philippines before the outbreak and revised 2020 GDP forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

The authors’ projections indicate that the pandemic will cause a decrease of 14–20% in remittance inflows and that per capita household expenditures will decline by 1–2% in a year.

This paper was published in a journal "Economics of Disasters and Climate Change" and can be read from the link below.

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