JICA-RI Research Fellow Megumi Muto, in cooperation with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, has completed research on the impacts of climate change on Asian coastal cities. This document contains Muto’s research findings on the case study of Metro Manila. The findings of all city studies (Metro Manila, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and others) by these three organizations will be compiled into a synthesis report to be published by the World Bank.
Based on climate models provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study produced estimates of local temperature and precipitation changes anticipated in the year 2050, and constructed flood maps incorporating conditions caused by river overflow, sea level rise and intensified typhoons. This report includes estimates of damage costs resulting from flooding, such as from damage to buildings and travel time loss incurred from traffic congestion. The report thus derives recommendations on the investments necessary for adaptation to climate change.
According to the findings, if current flood control infrastructure improvements were halted now, a 100-year return period flood could cause aggregate damages of up to 24% of Metro Manila’s gross regional domestic product.
Not only will this study contribute to the formulation of Metro Manila’s climate change adaptation policy measures, it will also guide similar analyses of adaptation measures for coastal urban planning in other countries. The findings will also be used in joint studies by the ASEAN+3 research group on the fiscal and financial impacts of climate change.