No.24 Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Post-War Reconstruction: Toward a “Greener” Recovery of Ukraine

Along with the significant investment required for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, the rebuilding process will likely result in substantial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study estimated the CO2 footprint of Ukraine’s reconstruction using an environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) analysis. The results revealed that the carbon footprint during a ten-year reconstruction phase is expected to be 4.3 times Ukraine’s annual territorial CO2 emissions before the war. More than half of these emissions are estimated to be generated by Ukraine’s construction industry, indicating an urgent need to reduce emissions through industry modernization and efficiency improvements. Additionally, approximately 13% of the indirect CO2 emissions are anticipated to come from the production of building materials such as concrete and steel. Therefore, effective efforts must be made to curb these emissions by maximizing the recycling of materials from debris. Such measures are expected not only to significantly reduce CO2 emissions during Ukraine’s restoration and reconstruction phase but also to lead to the creation of new industries and prepare the country for potential future EU membership.

Keywords: Ukraine reconstruction, carbon footprint, infrastructure development, scrap recycling