No.14 Food Security and Rice Production Potential in Africa: The Future of the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD)

Food security has been a longstanding challenge facing Africa. Concerns are growing that food security will deteriorate due to rapid population growth and the worsening effects of climate change. Rice has become particularly critical to food security, with demand rising significantly faster than other major food crops. The continent-wide initiative, the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD), has been underway since 2008. CARD Phase 1 (2008–2018) achieved its goal of doubling rice production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 28 million tons in 2018. Since 2019, it has transitioned to CARD Phase 2, aiming to further double production to 56 million tons by 2030. However, the increase in rice production has primarily been driven by expanding cultivated areas, and productivity remains very low. Compared to other regions, the actual rice yield in SSA is significantly lower than its potential yield, indicating an urgent need for improving productivity. During the Green Revolution, Asian countries allocated 10–15% of their national budgets to the agricultural sector to boost food production and strongly promoted the rice development. This intensive focus on research, technology development, extension services, and irrigation infrastructure led to dramatic improvements in rice productivity. However, the share of national budgets allocated to agriculture in Africa averaged only 2.55% in 2020 and has declined since 2001. African governments need to secure the necessary budgets to increase rice production. In addition, they need to mobilize support from development partners and encourage private-sector investment. Regarding future rice production in Africa, Yuan et al. (2024) suggest that combining the current pace of expansion in the cultivated area (400,000 ha/year) with the yield increases achieved during Asia’s Green Revolution (52 kg/ha/year) offers the best compromise to achieve a reasonable level of rice self-sufficiency in Africa. If this were achieved, rice production would reach 55.13 million tons in 2030. This would nearly meet the CARD Phase 2 target. However, the current environment for African agriculture differs from that during the Green Revolution in Asia. Efforts must be made to pursue diverse development perspectives in agrifood systems, making it difficult to focus solely on food production. While the CARD Phase 2 target remains highly ambitious, this goal is effective in raising awareness among African policymakers and spurring action. Considering future food security, it is more important to promote sustainable and resilient development of rice production from a long-term perspective, rather than focus solely on the short-term 2030 target.

Keywords：Food Security in Africa, Rice, Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD)