Ex-post Evaluation

1. Outline of the Project

Country:

Bangladesh

Project title:

The Project for Construction of Multipurpose Cyclone Shelters (Phase3)

Issue/Sector:

Administration/General

Cooperation Scheme:

Grant Aid

Division in Charge:

Grant Aid Management Department

Total Cost:

566 million yen

Period of Cooperation

FY 1995

Partner Country’s Implementing Organization:

Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development & Cooperatives (LGED)

Supporting Organization in Japan:

Related Cooperation:

1-1 Background of the Project

In Bangladesh, 5.2 million people live in high-risk areas which are prone to cyclone damage. Two thirds of the population were obliged to live without any protection, and 140,000 people were killed in 1991. To provide protection against cyclones, the construction of cyclone shelters started in the 1960s. According to the master plan for multipurpose cyclone shelter construction which the Bangladesh government created after the devasting disaster in 1991, it was necessary to construct shelters at 2,500 points in high-risk areas, and thereby international organizations and bilateral donor agencies have promoted cooperation for conctructing shelters. Given this situation, the government of Bangladesh, setting the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development & Cooperatives (LGED) as an the Implementing Organization, requested to Japan for Grant Aid for the construction of shelters.

1-2 Project Overview

Japan provided Grant Aid for cyclone shelter construction from Phase 1 to Phase 4 until the time of the evaluaion. The number of shelters constructed are as follows: ten for Phase 1, fifteen for Phase 2, fifteen for Phase 3 and twenty one for Phase 4. These facilities are to be used not only as shelters but also as primary schools. This evaluation targets only Phase 3.

(1) Overall Goal
1) The lives in high-risk areas at coastal regions are protected.
2) To contribute to the realization of the master plan for multipurpose cyclone shelter construction.

(2) Project Purpose
1) The cyclone shelters are used in the case of evacuation.
2) The shelters are utilized as schools at normal times.

(3) Outputs
1) Construction of shelter buildings and necessary facilities.
2) Construction of Killa (facility to house animals and household stuff) within a 0. 3 km radius.

(4) Inputs

Japanese Side:

570 million yen

Bangladesh Side:

Land and Facilities

Local Cost 50 million yen

2. Evaluation Team

Members of Evaluation Team

M Humayun Kabir, Crown Agents

Period of Evaluation

February 4 – March 20, 2003

Type of Evaluation:

Ex-post Evaluation by Overseas Office

3. Results of Evaluation

3-1 Summary of Evaluation Results

(1) Impact
The goal of the government of Bangladesh is to build a total of 2,500 cyclone shelters, and seventy four percent of this target has been achieved at the time of this evaluation. Out of those constructed 3.5% of the shelters were built with Japan’s grant aid. The shelters built with Japan’s Grant Aid have been evaluated highly for their solid structure and height of the shelter that is hung higher than that of other shelters. However, cost efficiency has been slightly low comparing with construction by the other donors. The shelters built with Japan’s cooperation have been built in areas with relatively poor access.

Bangladesh suffered from a very serious cyclone in 1991, and in 1998 from a slightly less serious but relatively large cyclone. About 140,000 lives were lost in the 1991 cyclone, as well as 70,000 heads of livestock. However, thanks to the shelters that had been built, human loss was held down at 2,000 people in 1998. Most of the casualties occurred among fishermen out on water during the cyclone and residents living in areas with poor access to shelters; the death toll includes fatalities caused by diseases such as diarrhea due to the deteriorating sanitary conditions after the cyclone.

The shelters are normally used as primary schools, and in fifteen schools constructed by Phase 3 accommodate about 3,000 students. Construction of access roads to the schools has helped improve the school enrollment rate and it increased from fifty eight percent before construction to seventy seven percent after construction.

The shelters play important community functions, enabling the project to achieve effects beyond those originally intended. The first floor of the shelters is available for use by the community free of charge, and it is used on a daily basis for communities such as meetings, conferences, religious gatherings, religious education, election activities, and weddings. From 2001 shelters are used for adult education as well, particularly for literacy education. In those literacy classes, men use the shelter at night and women during the day. Currently 256 adults attend those classes with participants increasing every year. Shelters are often utilized as community centers in rural and fishing villages, as well as for health services such as vaccinations and family planning.

The shelters construction results in decreasing the damage inflicted by cyclones and thus increasing the number of residents in coastal areas. Particularly island residents who have lost their land due to coastal erosion have settled in coastal areas; aid from some donors has led to progress in building shelters along the coast.
In addition, various positive impacts have been seen: construction of shelters has led to progress in the Ministry of Education’s construction of primary schools in coastal areas, shelters become the center of villages and the price of surrounding land has risen and the number of stores has increased, there has been an increase in the number of buildings imitating the structure of shelters, the shelters are also used to prevent crime and preserve public order and so on.

(2) Sustainability
All of the shelters are maintained in good condition. The chairs, desks, bathroom, windows and doors are all usable. The alarm by which the Bangladesh government warns of an approaching cyclone is conveyed to the villages via wireless radio and the network system is established for a time of emergency; the alarm is carried by teams of disaster prevention volunteers using megaphones and flags to sound an alert within each area, so that residents can carry their household goods (including livestock) and evacuate to the nearest shelter. LGED is responsible for repairs and maintenance, and the primary and mass education and the region’s primary school management committee are in charge of daily care. However, each district is allocated with only a small budget, and other decrepit schools are given priority for expenditure, so there is not enough left over for maintenance expenses of schools in shelters. Further, quite a bit of time is required for the procedures in applying for funds to cover maintenance expenses.

3-2 Factors that promoted realization of effects

(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
N/A

(2) Factors Concerning the Implementation Process
1) There were strong needs by residents for shelter construction. They showed active cooperation, for instance by providing the land needed to build the shelter. Also, the shelter is used for various functions and cooperation in regular maintenance activities is gained under high awareness of ownership by the residents.
2) After 1993, a program providing money for education to poor families was expanded, and opportunities to attend school increased. As a result, students in schools in shelters have increased.

3-3 Factors that Impeded Realization of Effects

(1) Factors Concerning the Planning
N/A

(2) Factors concerning the Implementation Process
1) Some residents fear that their household goods will be stolen and do not evacuate to the shelters. This is one of the factors why shelters do not function fully.
2) There were areas where the number of classes was restricted since there were not enough teachers to meet the rising school enrollment.

3-4 Conclusion

The fifteen shelters built in Phase 3 are all in good condition and they held down the number of casualties caused by the 1998 cyclone. The shelters are not only used as schools, but also to fulfill diverse purposes as a center for social activities in the area. In future, it is necessary to work to improve the function as a school by supplying electricity and water stably.

3-5 Recommendations

(1) The Bangladesh government should supply electricity to the fifteen shelters. Also deep wells should be excavated to replace the wells that can no longer be used. Roads linking the shelter and villages need to be constructed to improve access.

(2) Precautionary training and disaster drills should be held as part of preparation for cyclone defense to minimize damage. Also, methods to ensure safe drinking water in the event of a cyclone should be reviewed.

(3) Implementing institutions are using their own different methods and specifications to build shelters, which is very inefficient. The Bangladesh government should set one standard for cyclone shelters and improve efficiency in order to achieve a target for shelter construction.

(4) Since shelters are normally used as schools, in planning new shelters in the future, the opinions of teachers and students in the existing fifteen shelters should be considered to improve the ease of use.

3-6 Lessons Learned

N/A

3-7 Follow-up Situation

N/A