Construction and Opening Effects of a Large-Scale Bridge Project on Real Estate Prices: Evidence From the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link

Large-scale transport infrastructure can reshape urban land markets by changing accessibility, yet causal evidence on large-scale bridge projects remains limited, especially in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL), which opened in January 2024, on real estate prices in the Mumbai City District. Using parcel-level panel data from the Annual Statement of Rates for 2014–2025 and a difference-in-differences design based on distance to the bridge entrance ramp, we find that properties located closer to the MTHL experienced higher price increases after the bridge opened. The evidence is strongest in specifications that exclude parcels located near other major transport infrastructure, helping address concerns about overlapping development effects. The results are also consistent with capitalization beginning around the construction phase, suggesting that expectations about improved accessibility were at least partly reflected in property values before the bridge became operational. This trend disappears when land parcels in the more remote areas of the Mumbai Suburban District are included, suggesting that the impact of the MTHL attenuates with distance, although this pattern may not be fully captured by linear distance measures, particularly given differences in urban structure between the City and Suburban districts. These findings indicate that major investments in urban transport can be quickly capitalized in nearby property values in dense metropolitan settings, highlighting the importance of local spatial context in infrastructure evaluations.