Thank you Victor for very very kind introduction.

It is my great pleasure to be back at CSIS. I am grateful to all my friends here for giving me the opportunity to engage in candid discussions on issues, such as Japan-US relations, international politics in East Asia and development cooperation. As you may know, as Victor introduced, I have long studies East Asia international context and theories of international relations. So, engagement with CSIS specialists, such as Victor has always been very rewarding to me. But over a decade and so, as Victor introduced, I was engaged in JICA’s activities. I have been involved in development cooperation as practitioner. So, today, as President of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), I would like to talk about development cooperation in the world of disruptions.

The last time that I discussed issues on development cooperation here actually was February 2014, in my previous time as JICA president, more than ten years ago. Much has happened in the world since then.

Of course, Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016. The United States in a way discarded its engagement policy toward China. China and Mr. Xi Jinping, has started boasting its development model around the world while depriving the people of Hong Kong of their freedom. North Korea continues to develop ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Military coups have occurred in countries like Myanmar, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years. Putin invaded Ukraine. Civil wars broke out in Ethiopia and Sudan. Hamas attacked Israel, resulting in a prolonged siege and humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Tense standoffs have persisted in the South and East China Seas. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. And, of course, we cannot forget about COVID-19.　We are confronted with the world of many many disruptions. Our human security is in danger.

Obviously, these disruptions require immediate responses. Humanitarian aid should be sent as quickly as possible. Diplomatic overtures must be made promptly. Peace talks should be pursued in a timely manner. Political dialogues may be called for to ease tensions. Even military assistance is sometimes necessary, as in the case of Ukraine. These are all important measures in this world of disruptions.

Yet, I think we should not overlook the importance of development cooperation. Development cooperation is sometimes criticized as being too slow. Yes, we need ambulances to respond swiftly to emergencies. But unless we have good hospitals, ambulances could not save many lives. Without sustainable development, we cannot reduce the overall dangers coming out of the current compounded crises.

In truth, disruptions are not the isolated events in my understanding. Instead, they arise from complex interactions among and between social systems, living systems and physical systems. Geopolitical disruptions are compounded by natural disasters: droughts, cyclones, wildfires, earthquakes, and tsunamis. The outbreak of war can upset the world economy and even cause commodity prices to spike in regions already suffering from floods and droughts. Likewise, debt crises caused by the mismanagement of finances and economic development may lead to political crises. Unless we make our societies more resilient, we cannot reduce the overall danger to human security.

Political solutions are essential to resolve political problems. But political solutions that are not supported by the prospect of sound and sustainable development could be very very fragile. Emergency relief operations are always needed when natural disasters strike. Yet emergency relief would not prevent another disaster from happening; rather, affected societies must reconstruct in a manner that minimizes future risks. Sound development of physical and human infrastructure that can withstand natural hazards are, I believe, necessary.

To protect the free and open international order, development cooperation plays very important role. The most important task of the international community to protect the current international political order, I think, is to support Ukraine and prevent Russia from getting away with its aggression. Though military aid for Ukraine is critical, I consider development cooperation to be just as important for the country’s recovery and reconstruction. Although Gaza’s post-conflict prospects are still murky, but development cooperation could be vital for long-term stability there.

If development cooperation is important, what exactly should it entail?

The recent increase in policy-relevant academic studies incorporating what is called randomized controlled trials (RCT) is, I think, welcome. They can examine the effectiveness of policy interventions in the field of development cooperation. Concrete evidence of successful interventions is useful. These studies have deemed some of JICA’s projects to be effective. However, RCT-based evaluations cannot easily assess all types of development cooperation, including infrastructure projects and such attempts to create a system of universal health coverage. Here, I think, I would like to highlight what appear to work in my observations as a practitioner from Japan’s experience over the past decades.

First, I think the ownership of recipient countries is critical. When our development partners have strong ownership over projects, they are more likely to end successfully. A clear example I have in mind is the Delhi Metro in India. JICA started financing its construction in the 1990s. Through a series of large-scale concessional loans and technical cooperation, the Delhi Metro has now expanded and is now one of the biggest urban transportation networks in the world. More than 5 million people benefit from the Delhi Metro every day, avoiding heavy traffic on roads and experiencing more predictable travel times. The Delhi Metro operates on time from 6 a.m. to 11 p.m. and has comfortable, air-conditioned cars. In my understanding, the leadership of Elattuvalapil Sreedharan, managing director of Delhi Metro Rail Corporation between 1995 and 2012, was a decisive factor in the success of JICA’s cooperation for the metro. Mr. Sreedharan was the driving force of Indian ownership over the project and very instrumental in collaborating with Japanese engineers to adopt what he considered to be good standards of practice of Japan’s metro systems.

The second element of successful approach is human capacity development and empowerment. It is a prerequisite for the transformation of motivation and mindsets. A technical cooperation project that JICA launched in Kenya in the mid-2000s, which called the Smallholder Horticulture Empowerment & Promotion, short for SHEP. This approach, the SHEP Approach shows how human capacity development and empowerment can be realized.

This project focuses on transforming farmers' mindsets from that of subsistence farming to that of market-oriented farming; that is, from "grow and sell" to "grow to sell." SHEP programs attempt to "unlock farmers' motivation" by helping them arrange market surveys in nearby markets and encouraging them to plan and make informed decisions about crop selection. Through targeted capacity development, the SHEP approach has increased farmers' incomes, almost doubled, and resulted in improved livelihoods, enhanced diets, and better living conditions.

In collaboration with other development partners, the SHEP Approach has spread now to more than 60 countries and features prominently in government policies. In fact, upon the completion of JICA's technical cooperation projects in Malawi and South Africa, the Ministries of Agriculture of both countries adopted SHEP as their own program.

The third element of effective development cooperation is, I think, long-term commitment. JICA’s development cooperation in promoting peacebuilding in the Mindanao region of the Philippines, underscores this. In Mindanao, military conflicts between Muslim residents and the Philippine government occurred over several decades, threatening lives and the well-being of communities.

Japan began its cooperation in Mindanao during the 1990s. Based on the idea that “prospects of development can contribute to peace-building and peace-consolidation,” Japan engaged with both the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) for realization of a peace process. In addition to undertaking peace mediation and ceasefire monitoring, Japan has also provided development cooperation aimed at strengthening capacity of the Bangsamoro Transitional Authority, which is created based on MILF to deliver services, including for community development, agriculture, and basic infrastructure. Our support has gone a long way to improving the livelihoods of residents of the Mindanao region.

JICA's close and continued involvement in the peace process, even during times of crisis, earned the strong trust of both the government and MILF. Through this cooperation, all sides made efforts to improve the prospects for a lasting peace—ultimately leading to the realization of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro in 2014. To further solidify the prospects of a lasting peace, JICA has supported delivering what we call "quick impact projects" as peace dividend—including the construction of schools and other community facilities. We will continue to support the transition and preparation for the official establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Government in June, 2025.

Obviously, there may be many many other elements of success for the effective development cooperation. Still, the three I have listed here should be included in any conditions of effective development cooperation.

Ownership of the people and leaders of developing countries is crucial. If assistance is viewed merely as a gift, once the assistance ends, so too does its effect. The fruits of development cooperation are sustainable only if the measures that are introduced via development cooperation are internalized within the recipient country. Unless you consider the project as your own, you may not maintain and promote it with your own resources. In this sense, development cooperation serves as a catalyst for those who want change.

Capacity development and empowerment is equally indispensable. To clarify, though, the transfer of knowledge and techniques may not be effective unless it helps to unlock the right motivation and mindset of recipients. To realize such transformation, people-to-people relations, people-to-people interactions are very important. Intense dialogue and serious attempts at building mutual understanding will be a trigger to make such transformation of mindsets. Unless people are motivated, any external help or suggestions will not bring about much change.

Long-term commitment is also pivotal in a turbulent world. Many fluctuations, often bad ones, transpire over the course of development, including peacebuilding. Unless there is a consistent approach over the long term, durable expectations of peace will not take root. Unless such expectation does not take root, any political resolution to conflict could be very fragile.

Having said all this, I do not intend to imply that JICA's development cooperation is perfect. In our annual evaluation of project, some projects are rated as category C on a scale from A to D. Given the serious challenges that can unfold in a world marked by disruptions, it is not so easy to implement development cooperation effectively. We have experienced many disappointments, but there are also promising examples from our extensive body of work as I illustrated today.

You might be wondering, even if some of JICA's work is helpful, can Japan continue to deliver for the international community?

Japan's GDP fell to 4th place in the world last year, just after that of Germany. Some might view that Japan’s prolonged economic stagnation since the 1990s as a “lost decade”.

Then again, if you look at what it has done internationally in recent years despite such relative economic decline, Japan has made many positive international contributions in many areas. For example, after the United States withdrew from the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), Japan took the initiative to preserve this pact within a framework called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The United Kingdom is now joining the CPTPP. Moreover, Japan coined the concept of a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific." Nowadays, many countries and organizations drafted their "Indo-Pacific" strategies.

It is true that Japan is no longer the biggest provider of Official Development Assistance (ODA) as was the case in the 1990s. Last year, however, Japanese ODA on a grant equivalent basis reached a historic high, even higher than when Japan was the world’s top donor. ODA as a percentage of GNI also hit a highest mark in 2023, at 0.44%. The GNI ratio of Japan's ODA is still lower than the international target of 0.7%; however, it does surpass the OECD average. Furthermore, looked from the perspective of recipient countries, Japan remains tthe largest provider of ODA to most Southeast Asian countries, India, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and Panama. Though Japan is not the top provider of ODA in Sub-Sahara Africa or the Pacific islands, it ranks as the second and third, fourth largest donor in a number of countries from these regions. In absolute terms, Japan's ODA has increased even if it has not quite held up against the levels of ODA from the U.S. and Germany, both of which had increased ODA quite big in the first two decades of 21^st century.

Before elaborating on Japan’s support for Ukraine, I would like to first express my appreciation for the valuable advice that CSIS scholars have kindly shared with JICA’s Ukraine team. Ukraine is currently a very important partner for JICA. Japan’s total non-military contribution to the country amounts to about 9 billion US dollars, behind only that of Germany and the UK. JICA, in close consultation with relevant Ukrainian ministries and municipalities, is providing mine detectors, de-mining machines, heavy machines for debris management, generators, equipment for power substations, MRIs and CTs for hospitals, PCs for schools, and many other kinds of equipment. These are all items that our Ukrainian partners have prioritized in their pressing needs. JICA will continue to respect Ukraine’s ownership.

ODA, as quantitative inputs to the developing countries, continues to be important. Even so, I would argue that we should pay much closer attention to the outcomes of our development cooperation. I have pointed out a few JICA projects that have had positive outcomes. They rested on securing the ownership of recipients, unlocking the full potential and motivation of human resources, and maintaining long-term consistency. Though Japan's financial resources may come under further strain in the future, I think, together with our global partners like the United States we will do our best to foster resilience and sustainable development in this world of disruptions. Thank you very much.