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世界銀行ABCDE会合でJICA研究所の武藤研究員と澤田客員研究員が論文発表

2009年6月24日

ABCDE-sawada.JPG

「外生的ショックと家計」をテーマに発表する
澤田客員研究員

2009年6月22日~24日、韓国・ソウルにて、「東アジアの開発経験と金融危機」を全体テーマとした、世界銀行:開発経済に関する年次会合(Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics<ABCDE>会合)が、世界銀行と韓国政府で共同開催されました。JICA研究所から恒川惠市所長のほか、藤田安男上席研究員、武藤めぐみ研究員、澤田康幸客員研究員らが参加、JICAが主催する2つの分科会で研究成果を発表しました。

恒川所長が議長を務める分科会「自然/人的災害に対する家計や企業の行動と政策的示唆」では、澤田客員研究員(東京大学准教授)が「自然/人的災害が家計に与える影響」のタイトルで発表を行いました。過去の複数の論文の成果を集成したこの発表では、主に地震や津波、鳥インフルエンザといった「外生的ショック」を受けた際の家計行動を紹介。こうした事例では、ショックと行動の因果関係を特定しやすいこと(「自然実験」)が明らかにされ、このような自然実験から教訓を得ることで事前の保険や事後の所得補填などの政策の有効性が議論できるという点をめぐって、活発な意見交換が行われました。

ABCDE-fujita3.JPG

アブドゥル・バイエス教授(左)と
藤田上席研究員(右)

一方、藤田上席研究員が議長を務める分科会「アフリカのICT(情報通信技術)革命」では、冒頭、バングラデシュにおける携帯電話の影響の先駆的な分析を行ったジャンギルナガール大学のアブドゥル・バイエス教授が、携帯電話がもたらす新しい情報が貧困削減に与える影響について概観するスピーチを行いました。その後、武藤研究員が、携帯電話がウガンダの農家の市場参加に与える影響に関しての論文を発表し、携帯電話により価格情報が農家側にも普及するようになり、主食バナナの買い取り価格が上昇したとの報告を行いました。これにより、便益を受けたのは特に市場から遠方にある小規模農家であり、携帯電話による情報普及は貧困削減に貢献することを示しました。バイエス教授からは、自らのスピーチも踏まえ、携帯電話の効果を定量的に把握した意義を強調しつつ、今後、消費者への影響も含めて研究の深化を期待するとコメントがありました。同教授は、バングラデシュに帰国後、同国の日刊紙に武藤研究員の研究について投稿されました。

今回のABCDE会合では、金融危機を乗り越えるにあたっての自由貿易の重要性やアジアの需要拡大への期待、金融監督システムの再構築などについて議論がなされました。また、サブ・テーマとして、産業政策やソーシャル・キャピタルから金融危機の管理、新国際経済システムに至るまで、アジアの今までの開発の経験を振り返り、成長を持続させるという観点から重要なトピックがとり上げられました。

 ■関連リンク

JICA研究所主催の分科会を紹介したバングラデシュの新聞 

 

■ Agenda 

June 22                                       

09:00 – 09:40

OPENING SESSION
Opening Remarks:     Jeung Hyun Yoon, Minister of Strategy and Finance,
                                   Korea
Welcoming Remarks: Justin Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief
                                   Economist, The World Bank

09:40 – 10:30

KEYNOTE ADDRESS 1: The Financial Crisis: Causes and Policy Responses
Speaker: Il SaKong, Chair of G20 Summit Korea Coordinating Committee,
       Chairman & CEO of the Korea International Trade Association
Chair:      Justin Lin, The World Bank

10:30 – 12:00

 

PLENARY SESSION I: Industrial Policy and Development
Speakers:   James Robinson, Harvard University, USA
          Ha-Joon Chang, University of Cambridge, UK
Discussants: Karen R. Polenske, MIT, USA
          Bert Hofman, The World Bank
Chair:      Oh-Seok Hyun, President, Korea Development Institute (KDI)

12:00 – 14:00

Lunch

14:00 – 15:30

 

PLENARY SESSION 2: Social Capital, Institutions, and Development
Speakers:   Partha Dasgupta, Cambridge University, UK
          Masahiko Aoki, Stanford University, USA
Discussants: Wonhyuk Lim, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
          Mariano Tommasi, Universidad de San Andres, Argentina
Chair:            Jongryn Mo, Yonsei University, Korea

15:30 – 16:00

Coffee Break

16:00 – 18:00

PARALLEL SESSIONS: FIRST SERIES

 

Session 1: The Growth-Employment Challenge: A Comparative Approach between Asian Economic Transitions and Africa Today 
Panelists:      Jorge Saba Arbache, Bruno Losch, The World Bank
                      Shujiro Urata, Waseda University, Tokyo
                      Thierry Giordano, Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs, France
                      Alan Gelb, The World Bank
Discussants:  Anne Krueger, Johns Hopkins University, USA
                      James A. Robinson, Harvard University, USA
Chair:            Justin Lin, The World Bank
*Organizers:  Jorge Saba Arbache & Bruno Losch, The World Bank

 

Session 2: Climate Change and Development
Speakers:      Johan Schaar, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden
Discussants:  Sunita Narain, Centre for Science and Environment, India
                      Shinya Ejima, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Chair:            Torgny Holmgren, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden
*Organizer:    Torgny Holmgren, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden

 

Session 3: East Asian Integration, Growth, and Business Cycle: Old Issues in a New Context
Speakers:      Chin Hee Hahn, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
                      Cyn-Young Park, Asian Development Bank (ADB)
                      Fukunari Kimura, Keio University, Japan
Discussants:  Seok-Kyun Hur, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
                      Prema-chandra Athukorala, Australia National University
                      Yong-Seok Choi, Kyung Hee University, Korea
Chair:            MoonJoong Tcha, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
*Organizer:   Chin Hee Hahn, Korea Development Institute (KDI)

 June 23                                     

07:30 – 09:00

BREAKFAST SESSIONS: FIRST SERIES

 

Session 1:ICT Innovation in Africa
Speakers:   Megumi Muto, JICA Research Institute, Japan
                    Jenny Aker, Center for Global Development and Tufts University, USA
Discussant: Abdul Bayes, Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
Chair:          Yasuo Fujita, JICA Research Institute, Japan
*Organizer:  Yasuo Fujita, JICA Research Institute, Japan

Session 2: The Impacts of the Global Economics and Financial Crisis in Asia: in Search of Appropriate Development Policy Responses
Speakers:    Guenther Taube, InWent, Germany
Chair:          Gerhard Ressel, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and
                    Development (BMZ), Germany
*Organizer:  Joachim Mueller, InWent, Germany

Session 3: Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance: Opportunities for Public-Private Cooperation
Panelists:  Abhas Kumar Jha, The World Bank
         Chang-Gyun Park, Chung-Ang University, Korea
         Reto Schnarwiler, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Ltd.
                  Joey Salceda, Governor, Albay Province, The Philippines
                 Seong Ju Kang, Ministry of Public Administration and Security, Korea
Chair:       Abhas Kumar Jha, The World Bank

09:00 – 10:00

KEYNOTE ADDRESS 2: Development Prospects in Light of the Crisis
Speaker: Anne O. Krueger, Johns Hopkins University, USA
Chair:      Boris Pleskovic, The World Bank

10:00 – 11:30

PLENARY SESSION 3: Financial Crisis and Regulation
Speakers:      Yung Chul Park, Korea University
                      Joshua Aizenman, University of California, Santa Cruz
Discussants: Jaime Jaramillo-Vallejo, The World Bank
                     Jong-Wha Lee, Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Chair:            Joong-kyung Choi, Ambassador to the Philippines, Korea

11:30 – 13:00

Lunch

13:00 – 14:00

KEYNOTE ADDRESS 3: The Global Crisis: Is It Over Yet?
Speaker: Simon Johnson, MIT, USA
Chair:      Je Yoon Shin, Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Korea

14:00 – 15:30

PLENARY SESSION 4: The Road Ahead to a Sustainable Global Economic System
Speakers:     Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
                     Giovanni Zanalda, Duke University, USA
Discussants: Yoon Je Cho, Sogang University, Korea
                     Jeromin Zettelmeyer, European Bank for Reconstruction and
                     Development (EBRD)
Chair:           Sang-woo Nam, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, 
                     Korea

15:30 – 16:00

Coffee Break

16:00 –18:00

PARALLEL SESSIONS: SECOND SERIES

 

Session 4: Global Financial Crisis: A Development Perspective
Panelists:    Justin Lin, The World Bank
                   Ernest Aryeetey, Institute of Statistical, Social, and Economic Research,
                   Ghana
                   William Cline, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA
                   Cayetano W. Paderanga, University of the Philippines
 Moderator:  M. Zia Qureshi, The World Bank
*Organizer:  M. Zia Qureshi, The World Bank

 

Session 5: Natural Shocks, Household/Firm Behaviour, and Policy Responses
Speakers:     Yasuyuki Sawada, University of Tokyo, Japan
                     Albert Park, Oxford University, UK
                     Wang Sangui, Renmin University of China
Discussants: Hidehiko Ichimura, University of Tokyo, Japan
                     Jonna P. Estudillo, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan
Chair:           Keiichi Tsunekawa, JICA Research Institute, Japan
*Organizer:   Keiichi Tsunekawa, JICA Research Institute, Japan

 

Session 6: Will Euro Adoption Mitigate or Deepen the Crisis Impact: Czech vs. Slovak Experience and Expectation
Speakers:    Martin Barto, National Bank of Slovakia Vit Barta, Czech National Bank
                   Jeremy Lawson, OECD
Discussant:   Jeremy Lawson, OECD
Chair:          Lubomir Lizal, CERGE-EI, Czech Republic
*Organizer:  Lubomir Lizal, CERGE-EI, Czech Republic

Session 7: Unification and Transition
Panelists:   Jan Svejnar, University of Michigan, USA
                   Il Dong Koh, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
                   Byung-Yeon Kim, Seoul National University
Chair:         Jeromin Zettelmeyer, European Bank for Reconstruction and
                   Development (EBRD)
*Organizer: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, European Bank for Reconstruction and 
                   Development (EBRD)

 June 24                                          

07:30 –09:00

BREAKFAST SESSIONS: SECOND SERIES

Session 4 : Sharing Knowledge for Development
Speakers:      Wonhyuk Lim, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
                     Jay-Hyung Kim, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
Discussants: Chong-Bum An, Sungkyunkwan University, Korea
                     Edward Reed, The Asia Foundation
                     Toru Yanagihara, Takushoku University, Japan
Chair:           MoonJoong Tcha, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
*Organizer:   Wonhyuk Lim, Korea Development Institute (KDI)

Session 5: New Partnership with EDCF for Growth and Development
Speaker:        Eungho Ahn, Korea Eximbank
Discussants: Siwook Lee, Korea Development Institute (KDI)
                     Jione Jung, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
                     Mansur Ly, Embassy of Senegal in Korea
Chair:            Taeho Bark, Seoul National University
*Organizer:    Eungho Ahn, Korea Eximbank

Session 6: Charting a Global Recovery
Speakers:   Mansoor Dailami, The World Bank
                   Hans Timmer, The World Bank
                   Philip Turner, Bank of International Settlements, Switzerland
Chair:         Justin Lin, The World Bank
*Organizer: Mansoor Dailami, The World Bank

09:00 –10:00

KEYNOTE ADDRESS 4: Emerging Market Countries in the Crisis
Speaker: Olivier J. Blanchard, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Chair:      In June Kim, Seoul National University, Korea

10:15 –11:45

PLENARY SESSION 5: Innovation and Competition
Speakers:       Philip R. Lane, Trinity College, Dublin 
                       Sungchul Chung, Science Technology Policy Institute, Korea
Discussants:  Jan Svejnar, University of Michigan, USA
                       Jean-Jacques Dethier, The World Bank
Chair:            Shahrokh Fardoust, The World Bank

11:45 –12:45

ROUND Table: Challenges to Resolving the Global Financial Crisis – Quickly and Effectively
Panelists: Olivier J. Blanchard, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
                 Jan Svejnar, University of Michigan, USA
Chair:       Yung Chul Park, Korea University

12:45 –13:30

CLOSING SESSION:
Award Ceremony of the World Bank Essay Competition
  Justin Lin, The World Bank

Summary of the Conference
  Alan Gelb, The World Bank

Closing Remarks
  Young Geol Lee, Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance, Korea

Handover of ABCDE 2010 to Sweden
  Lars Vargö, Swedish Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
  Young Geol Lee, Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance, Korea

日時2009年6月22日(月) ~ 2009年6月24日(水)
場所韓国 ソウル 新羅ホテル



開催情報

開催日時2009年6月22日(月)~2009年6月24日(水)
開催場所韓国 ソウル 新羅ホテル

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